If you are the merchant of death,be you the one conducting bomb blasts in Indian cities or the one who are attacking minorities in karnataka, orissa..elsewhere, please read this text once:
Perpetrators of terror and communal riots follow the distorted versions of the preaching and are trying to preach the same nonsense to the whole world. And as for the revenge you are talking about, that would help you only to loose the sympathy or concern others have about sufferings, if any. Terror mongers communal fanatics attacking minorities like you are serving interest of none other than evils who are out to destroy harmony. By evil act of this kind you are killing my fellow human beings. When you were exploding those bombs in the city , it’s not only my parents and relatives who had worried about my safety but also my friends, most of them Hindus and Christians. They hadn’t thought before calling me whether I am a Hindu or Muslim. Because they knew bombs, whether made by Muslims, Hindus or Christians would kill all living things on earth notwithstanding one’s religion, region or country. Bombs don’t discriminate Hindus, Sikhs, Muslims or Indians or Americans or Pakistanis. Everybody is same for them. They will kill whoever comes in their way. So my friends worried about me, for they are human beings above all. Then only they are Hindus, Sikhs or Muslims.
The killers are just killers everywhere. They are neither Muslims nor Hindus, neither theists nor atheists, neither spiritual nor intellectual. They are just killers. They deserve a punishment what a murderer deserves. Nobody, Hindu, Muslim or Sikh, should be ashamed of their religion in front of these killers. A religion resides in people’s heart, not in guns.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Forecasting the Stock Market
“ Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.” Anon.
Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. “Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months.” Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.
Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I’m not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn’t either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.
Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some “expert” who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some “analyst” finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that “secret” with a few close friends. Within minutes the “secret” is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.
If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your “investment”. This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is ‘if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose’? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.
From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, “Hang in there. You are in for the long haul”. Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.
Yes, but understand you don’t need to predict anything. Don’t forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,
Don’t try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.
courtesy:Al Thomas
Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. “Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months.” Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.
Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I’m not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn’t either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.
Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some “expert” who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some “analyst” finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that “secret” with a few close friends. Within minutes the “secret” is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.
If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your “investment”. This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is ‘if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose’? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.
From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, “Hang in there. You are in for the long haul”. Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.
Yes, but understand you don’t need to predict anything. Don’t forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,
Don’t try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.
courtesy:Al Thomas
MICROFINANCE AND AGRICULTURE: AN ANALYSIS
Microfinance groups can effectively improve agriculture, water resources and standard of life of an individual, community….etc as various empirical studies has pointed out. People’s contribution along with assistance from banks and government could work well to stimulate investment in rural agricultural activities. Obtaining fertilizers at lower rate than market rate and easy availability of credits can provide relief to farming community. As any micro credit programme there is mutual sharing of plans, actions, and crises due to which members are able to react quickly to emergency situations and mitigate loss.
Today, there are about 60,000 retail credit outlets of the formal banking sector in the rural areas comprising the 12,000 branches of district level cooperative banks, over 14,000 branches of the Regional Rural Banks. On an average, there is at least one retail credit outlet for about 5,000 rural people. In the mist of the apparent inadequacies of the formal financial system to cater to the needs of the rural poor, NABARD sponsored an action research project in 1987 through an NGO called MYRADA. Encouraged by the results of field experiments in group based approach for lending to the poor, NABARD launched a pilot project in 1991-1992 in partnership with NGOs for promoting and grooming self help groups of homogenous members and making savings from existing banks and within the existing legal frame work. Steady progress of the pilot project led to the mainstreaming of the SHG-Bank linkage programme in 1996 as normal banking activity of the banks with widespread acceptance. The rapid progress achieved in SHG formation, which has now turned in to an empowerment movement among women across the country, laid the foundation for emergence of MFIs in India.
Delivering small-scale loans and savings mechanisms can be particularly challenging in areas of low population density, where the distance between clients is great, transportation networks are often poor and low income levels tend to translate into impracticably small financial transactions. This phenomenon prevails in India to a large extent. India has seen man farmer suicides during the last few years; the reasons attributed are many, ranging from pro rich approach of World trade Organization to lack of access to proper credit facilities.
The identification of agricultural microfinance is a significant remaining challenge to financial sectors that serve the majority of the poor spurred CGAP to undertake an analysis of current practices. CGAP in 2002 began desk research, consultant site visits, and stakeholder consultations to identify promising agricultural operations. The study was based on Kyrgyzstan, Bolivia, Peru, Mozambique and Kenya.
Summary of the studies are as follows;
Bai Tushum Financial Foundation (BTF) began agricultural credit operation Kyrgyzstan in 2000, after it assumed the foundering, three-year-old portfolios of several small agricultural credit associations. Through dedicated attention to building a sustainable institution and creative solutions to cultural and legislative barriers, BTF has quickly evolved into a strong local institution serving a range of rural and urban borrowers’ needs. BTF has half of its loan portfolio in agriculture, offering crop production and livestock loans, as well as a mixture of agro-processing, trade, and mortgage loan products. Yet it is profitable, achieving 230 percent operational self-sufficiency in its first year of operation. The institution’s commitment to agricultural lending appears to have superseded profit maximization however, with trade and other loans sometimes cross-subsidizing the agricultural portfolio.
Confianza, Peru is a small regulated financial institution in central Peru that provides a mixture of rural, urban, small business, agricultural, housing, and consumer loans to low-income clients. Confianza’s loan portfolio was almost exclusively group loans for agricultural purposes. Confianza was forced to make a set of swift, substantial changes in order to survive due to plunging commodity prices and combination of other factors. The organization’s approach demonstrates that agricultural lending can be viable when combined with other rural and urban financial services, making small-farmer clients attractive when competition is strong in urban areas. By the end of 2002, the organization was financially sustainable, lending more than US $4 million annually.
Equity Bank Limited (Equity), Kenya provides microfinance services to more than 250,000 low and moderate income citizens in Nairobi and Kenya’s Central province via a network of branch offices and mobile banking units. In 1994, it began tailoring its loan and saving products to a microfinance market, eventually adding two loan products for tea and dairy farmers that are secured by agribusiness contracts. By the end of 2003, the deposit base of equity had grown o US $44 million and its outstanding loan portfolio topped $22 million.
In very recent years some recognition has been given to food production by urban residents. And urban agriculture is a concept that evokes contradictory images. However, as urbanization overtakes demographic trends in developing countries, it is critical that policy makers in developing countries, it is critical that policy makers in developing countries and urban planners in particular heighten their awareness and appreciation of the important contribution that urban food and non-food production is making to the diversity of livelihood activities of the urban poor and the quality of life in urban centers in developing countries (Remenyi, 1999, and UNDP,1996)
It is only relatively recently that microfinance providers in Bangladesh have begun to target the needs of the urban poor for financial services. The Grameen bank restricts itself to rural areas. BRAC, on the other hand, initiated an urban credit program for slum dwellers in 1997. In a city (Dhaka) of two million people below the poverty line the BRAC share is only 2.5% of the poor. BRAC urban credit program is targeted at women slum dwellers, especially recent arrivals who have least knowledge of where land might available for planting or animal production, and with the least opportunities to use their rural production skills.
In addition to BRAC, ASA and SafeSave, willing cooperation was forthcoming from the Credit and Development Forum (CDF) in Bangladesh. CDF is an umbrella body representing microfinance and micro enterprise development programs and NGOs in Bangladesh. It is electronically networked b email to all 850 member institutions.
The project’s impact on the agricultural sector, however, was modest, largely because of the scattered nature of its activities and future interventions in Bangladesh will require a radical rethink to maximize overall project impact.
Today, there are about 60,000 retail credit outlets of the formal banking sector in the rural areas comprising the 12,000 branches of district level cooperative banks, over 14,000 branches of the Regional Rural Banks. On an average, there is at least one retail credit outlet for about 5,000 rural people. In the mist of the apparent inadequacies of the formal financial system to cater to the needs of the rural poor, NABARD sponsored an action research project in 1987 through an NGO called MYRADA. Encouraged by the results of field experiments in group based approach for lending to the poor, NABARD launched a pilot project in 1991-1992 in partnership with NGOs for promoting and grooming self help groups of homogenous members and making savings from existing banks and within the existing legal frame work. Steady progress of the pilot project led to the mainstreaming of the SHG-Bank linkage programme in 1996 as normal banking activity of the banks with widespread acceptance. The rapid progress achieved in SHG formation, which has now turned in to an empowerment movement among women across the country, laid the foundation for emergence of MFIs in India.
Delivering small-scale loans and savings mechanisms can be particularly challenging in areas of low population density, where the distance between clients is great, transportation networks are often poor and low income levels tend to translate into impracticably small financial transactions. This phenomenon prevails in India to a large extent. India has seen man farmer suicides during the last few years; the reasons attributed are many, ranging from pro rich approach of World trade Organization to lack of access to proper credit facilities.
The identification of agricultural microfinance is a significant remaining challenge to financial sectors that serve the majority of the poor spurred CGAP to undertake an analysis of current practices. CGAP in 2002 began desk research, consultant site visits, and stakeholder consultations to identify promising agricultural operations. The study was based on Kyrgyzstan, Bolivia, Peru, Mozambique and Kenya.
Summary of the studies are as follows;
Bai Tushum Financial Foundation (BTF) began agricultural credit operation Kyrgyzstan in 2000, after it assumed the foundering, three-year-old portfolios of several small agricultural credit associations. Through dedicated attention to building a sustainable institution and creative solutions to cultural and legislative barriers, BTF has quickly evolved into a strong local institution serving a range of rural and urban borrowers’ needs. BTF has half of its loan portfolio in agriculture, offering crop production and livestock loans, as well as a mixture of agro-processing, trade, and mortgage loan products. Yet it is profitable, achieving 230 percent operational self-sufficiency in its first year of operation. The institution’s commitment to agricultural lending appears to have superseded profit maximization however, with trade and other loans sometimes cross-subsidizing the agricultural portfolio.
Confianza, Peru is a small regulated financial institution in central Peru that provides a mixture of rural, urban, small business, agricultural, housing, and consumer loans to low-income clients. Confianza’s loan portfolio was almost exclusively group loans for agricultural purposes. Confianza was forced to make a set of swift, substantial changes in order to survive due to plunging commodity prices and combination of other factors. The organization’s approach demonstrates that agricultural lending can be viable when combined with other rural and urban financial services, making small-farmer clients attractive when competition is strong in urban areas. By the end of 2002, the organization was financially sustainable, lending more than US $4 million annually.
Equity Bank Limited (Equity), Kenya provides microfinance services to more than 250,000 low and moderate income citizens in Nairobi and Kenya’s Central province via a network of branch offices and mobile banking units. In 1994, it began tailoring its loan and saving products to a microfinance market, eventually adding two loan products for tea and dairy farmers that are secured by agribusiness contracts. By the end of 2003, the deposit base of equity had grown o US $44 million and its outstanding loan portfolio topped $22 million.
In very recent years some recognition has been given to food production by urban residents. And urban agriculture is a concept that evokes contradictory images. However, as urbanization overtakes demographic trends in developing countries, it is critical that policy makers in developing countries, it is critical that policy makers in developing countries and urban planners in particular heighten their awareness and appreciation of the important contribution that urban food and non-food production is making to the diversity of livelihood activities of the urban poor and the quality of life in urban centers in developing countries (Remenyi, 1999, and UNDP,1996)
It is only relatively recently that microfinance providers in Bangladesh have begun to target the needs of the urban poor for financial services. The Grameen bank restricts itself to rural areas. BRAC, on the other hand, initiated an urban credit program for slum dwellers in 1997. In a city (Dhaka) of two million people below the poverty line the BRAC share is only 2.5% of the poor. BRAC urban credit program is targeted at women slum dwellers, especially recent arrivals who have least knowledge of where land might available for planting or animal production, and with the least opportunities to use their rural production skills.
In addition to BRAC, ASA and SafeSave, willing cooperation was forthcoming from the Credit and Development Forum (CDF) in Bangladesh. CDF is an umbrella body representing microfinance and micro enterprise development programs and NGOs in Bangladesh. It is electronically networked b email to all 850 member institutions.
The project’s impact on the agricultural sector, however, was modest, largely because of the scattered nature of its activities and future interventions in Bangladesh will require a radical rethink to maximize overall project impact.
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